Dr Timothy Cubitt is a Principal Research Analyst at the Australian Institute of Criminology. Timothy’s research focuses on radicalisation and violent extremism, law enforcement responses to outlaw motorcycle gangs, police misconduct, and the online sexual exploitation of children. Timothy holds a Bachelor of Arts in Criminology from the University of New South Wales, a Master of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism from Macquarie University, and a PhD in Criminology from Western Sydney University. His research has appeared in journals such as Crime Science, Journal of Criminal Justice, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, and Trends & Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice.
Presentations
Grievances and conspiracy theories as motivations for anti-authority protest: Findings from interviews with protesters
Dr Timothy Cubitt1, Mr Anthony Morgan1, Ms Isabella Voce1
1Australian Institute Of Criminology, Barton, Australia
Anti-authority protests, involving individuals and groups driven by a range of motives and ideologies, have increased since early 2020, with some protests posing a genuine threat to community safety and resulting in violent clashes with law enforcement. Protests relating to pandemic public health measures, including anti-lockdown and anti-vaccination protests, differed from others because of their links with the anti-government freedom movement. This movement presented an opportunity for exploitation by groups who intended to promote anti-government sentiment, often linked with far-right or conspiratorial ideologies, with the intention of increasing division within the community. This research involved interviews with individuals who protested in opposition to public health measures introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Interviews were analysed to explore the motivations for participating in protest activity, perception of law enforcement among protesters, and the impacts experienced as a result of protesting. Protesters were motivated by strong personal grievances which were shaped and amplified by adherence to conspiratorial ideologies and sovereign citizen beliefs. The combination of grievances and conspiratorial beliefs at times fostered mistrust and strong anti-government sentiment. While many believed that police maintained peace during protest activity, some participants reported a willingness to escalate to violence if police attempted to break up protest activity, and changing perceptions of law enforcement after their involvement in protest. These findings reflect the diverse views that can motivate participation in protest, and the susceptibility of protest movements to the influence of fringe groups.
Predicting high harm offending among gang members: Insights from replication studies in multiple jurisdictions
Despite growing recognition that certain OMCG members and their clubs are more likely to be involved in serious crime, the development and validation of risk assessments is only now emerging. This research uses machine learning methods to develop a risk assessment to predict recorded high-harm offending among OMCG members. This presentation details the development of the risk assessment in New South Wales, and replication of this risk assessment across Australia using national police information systems. Results showed it was possible to accurately predicted high-harm offending, and that it was possible to reproduce these findings across jurisdictions with marginal variation in prediction accuracy. This approach appeared able to accurately identify offenders prior to the point of escalation, and could be used to assist law enforcement responses.